All eyes are on Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday, where about 1.7 million people are eligible to vote, followed by Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin on 20 September. In all three contests, the far-right, anti-immigrant Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is expected to make strong gains.
What is the AfD and why is the Saxony-Anhalt vote so significant?
Founded in 2013 as an anti-euro force but later becoming an anti-immigrant party, the AfD has harnessed and amplified the frustrations of voters angered by economic stagnation, rising immigration and cultural shifts.
Latest polls have put it at around 40-42% in the state, bringing its aim of winning its first absolute majority at state level within reach. Taking power in the state would be a first for the far right since the second world war.
This matters for the whole country. State governments in Germany are represented in the upper house of parliament, the Bundesrat, and therefore have broad powers over education, culture and domestic security.
For the chancellor, the leader of the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), an AfD takeover in the state could be the biggest setback yet in a term already marked by repeated reverses.
The AfD leadership sees the chance to gain power at state level as a natural springboard to electoral success at the next federal election in 2029. The party is currently the main opposition in the Bundestag.
The populists’ main obstacle is the firm refusal of other parties to work with them, known as the Brandmauer, or firewall. However, that approach would be void if the AfD wins an absolute majority.
What has the party said it plans to do if it gets into power in Saxony-Anhalt?
On migration and identity, it has vowed to start deporting “irregular migrants” from “the first minute” and to foster patriotism by replacing the state’s current promotional slogan, “Think Modern”, with “Think German”.
Cultural offerings deemed anti-German would face a clampdown and funding for public broadcasters it regards as “leftwing propaganda lackeys” would be drastically cut.
In the education sector, German flags would replace rainbow flags in schools, students would sing the national anthem, and the children of asylum seekers would be taught in separate classes.
Home schooling – long banned as a response to the Nazi era – would be allowed again, and the history curriculum would be changed to move away from what the AfD sees as an excessive focus on the Nazi era.
Russian teaching would be expanded and programmes focused on combating rightwing extremism would be scrapped.
On the environment, the party wants to ban windfarms. On family, it wants to increase the German birthrate by introducing “welcome money” for couples who have children, reducing childcare costs and offering free school meals.
On security, it wants to push for far-reaching changes to the domestic intelligence agency, the BfV, which has classified the AfD’s Saxony-Anhalt branch as rightwing extremist.
It also wants to introduce “citizens’ watch” groups to assist the police in attempts to crack down on leftwing extremism. Critics of the proposal have compared it to the auxiliary police structures set up by the Nazis, which led to the creation of a police state.