It is rare for a state parliament election in Germany to attract as much media attention as the vote in Saxony-Anhalt. On 6 September 2026, the 1.7 million eligible voters in the eastern German state will decide whether the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) can form a state government for the first time.
So far, there has not been a head of government from a proven far-right party in post-World War II Germany — at either federal or state level. That would change if AfD lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund were elected to the post, since the Office for the Protection of the Constitution in Saxony-Anhalt already classified the AfD as such in 2023.
Siegmund’s chances of a historic triumph are high: for months the AfD has been comfortably leading the polls with well over 40% of the vote.
AfD, CDU and Left Party will get into parliament
Aside from the AfD, there are only two other parties that can count on being represented in the next state parliament: the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) of current State Premier Sven Schulze and the socialist Left Party, which is traditionally strong in eastern Germany, the former socialist GDR.
All other parties have reason to fear they could fail to reach the 5% threshold needed to enter parliaments in Germany.
This applies even to the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), who currently form part of the federal government coalition with the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU).
SPD, Greens, FDP, BSW might not make the 5% mark
The SPD is losing popularity nationwide. In Saxony-Anhalt, it is polling below the 8% it won five years ago.
The third party in Saxony-Anhalt’s current governing coalition, formed in 2021, has even fewer hopes: the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) are polling at only about 3%. After the FDP’s failure in the 2025 Bundestag general election and several defeats at state level, supporters are bracing for another setback.
The environmentalist Greens are also concerned about returning to the state parliament. The party, whose core voter base is in wealthy western German cities, is strongly rejected by many voters in rural areas because of its climate policies and multicultural vision of society.
Concern over Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW)
And then there is the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), founded in 2024 by its namesake, a former Left Party co-leader. The party is economically left-leaning, but socially right-wing conservative and populist. This is its first time taking part in a state election in Saxony-Anhalt.
After the BSW won 6.2% in the European Parliament elections in 2024 and results of between about 12% and 16% in the eastern German states of Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia during its first year, it fell short by only a few thousand votes of the 5% hurdle in the 2025 general election.
The BSW never really recovered from that setback. It then suffered defeats in three further state parliament elections. The party is also under pressure in Saxony-Anhalt, where it has been polling below 5%.
Should it win representation after all, Sahra Wagenknecht has already announced that her party’s lawmakers would not vote an AfD premier into office, but would abstain from the vote that would allow him to win a majority in parliament and take office.
Given the BSW’s poor polling numbers in Saxony-Anhalt, political scientist Oliver Lembcke speaks of an “endgame” for the party as a whole.
Small parties could prevent absolute majority for the AfD
The fact is: the more parties fail to reach the threshold, the higher the likelihood that the Alternative for Germany will be able to govern alone.
On the other hand, if, alongside the AfD, the CDU, Left Party and SPD win representation in the next Saxony-Anhalt parliament, and those three parties together hold more seats than the AfD, the situation becomes complicated. In 2018 the CDU adopted a so-called “resolution of incompatibility”, which rejects cooperation with both the AfD and the Left Party.
If the CDU sticks to this, forming even a minority government would be very difficult, perhaps impossible.
Could the CDU form a minority government?
Political scientist Lembcke from Ruhr University Bochum in North Rhine-Westphalia argues that the CDU should have adapted its incompatibility resolution to the changed conditions of the party system and political landscape. Because it failed to do so, this issue could now escalate dramatically in Saxony-Anhalt.
The Left Party is prepared to support Premier Sven Schulze of the CDU to secure a second term.
“In recent years, we, the Left Party, have shown that we take responsibility for this country. Especially when it comes to inhibiting the AfD,” Left Party co-leader Luigi Pantisano told television broadcaster ZDF.
He pointed to the states of Thuringia and Saxony, where the CDU leads coalition governments without a parliamentary majority and depends on the support of the Left Party.
Given the foreseeably complicated situation, one thing is clear ahead of the 6 September election: either Saxony-Anhalt faces an extremely difficult coalition-building process, or the state will be governed by the AfD — if the party benefits from the failure of many small parties and thereby secures an absolute majority in the state parliament.