Polling stations have opened in the east German state of Saxony-Anhalt, where the populist, far-right, anti-immigration Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is predicted to come out on top in an election that could have a major effect on Germany’s political landscape.
About 1.7 million people are eligible to vote. Polling stations opened at 8am local time and will close at 6pm, when exit polls are expected to give an initial indication of whether the AfD has secured enough votes for an absolute majority and the ability to govern the state.
That would be the first time the party has won a state government, and the first time since the second world war that a rightwing extremist party has gained power at regional state or parliament level in Germany.
Final polls before the vote put AfD support at about 40-41%. Polling also suggested the number of undecided voters was much lower than at previous elections.
The state is currently governed by the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) of the chancellor, Friedrich Merz, together with two smaller parties. The CDU, on about 23%, under its state prime minister, Sven Schulze, hopes to build a multi-party coalition in order to remain in power.
The CDU and all other mainstream parties have refused to form a coalition with the AfD, in what is known as a Brandmauer, or firewall. In Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD has been classified as “rightwing extremist” by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency.
The AfD’s lead candidate is Ulrich Siegmund, 35, a former fragrance salesman with a large following on TikTok who has been celebrated like a pop star. He has said he will take power only if the party wins an absolute majority, and would not accept a coalition with another party.
The Saxony-Anhalt election is the biggest test yet for Merz, who is unpopular, along with his government, after failing in his promises to reset Germany’s struggling economy and reduce support for the AfD. Irregular immigration has declined since he took office, but not enough to satisfy the average voter.
If the AfD wins convincingly, it would put huge pressure on Merz. In national polls, the CDU has also been overtaken by the AfD, which is looking towards victory at the next federal election in 2029.
If elected in Saxony-Anhalt, Siegmund has promised to launch a remigration and deportation offensive, ban rainbow flags in schools and halt the building of new wind farms.
He wants to change the state slogan from “Think modern” to “Think German” and reintroduce the singing of the national anthem in schools.
Siegmund has sought to tap a mood of ostalgie – nostalgia for communist East Germany – and to draw on discontent among east Germans who see themselves as second-class citizens compared with people from the west.
He turned up to vote on Sunday morning with his wife, riding an East German-era moped in the party colours, which was also a prominent prop during the election campaign at rallies across the state. In a statement outside the polling station, he said he was optimistic that the party would achieve “45%, and some”.
Thousands of AfD opponents gathered in the state capital, Magdeburg, on Saturday for a “festival of democracy”.
On Saturday evening, a message projected on to the facade of Magdeburg Cathedral read: “We do not abandon what we love. True love of the homeland is not the AfD.”
The bishop of Magdeburg, Gerhard Feige, in an address to a gathering of churchgoers, warned against forces “that want to sow discord, stoke mistrust and fear”. He drew parallels with historical developments, warning that democracy has the potential to abolish itself. “Not everyone who votes or is elected democratically is a democrat,” he said.
The German Economic Institute has warned of the far-reaching consequences for the German economy, in Saxony-Anhalt and beyond, particularly over its immigration policy, which it said would be “calamitous” for the state, with its ageing, dwindling population and heavy dependence on foreign workers.
Critics have also warned, because of the party’s Kremlin-friendly stance, that an AfD-run state could leak sensitive information to Russia. The AfD has dismissed such claims. It has said it would seek to reform the domestic intelligence service, calling it biased.
The latest poll by the public broadcaster ZDF on Thursday put the AfD on a decisive lead of 41%, with the CDU on 23%, the far-left Die Linke on 11.5%, the Social Democrats on 8.5% and the Greens on 6%. Two smaller parties failed to reach the 5% threshold needed to re-enter parliament.
Independent election observers are present at polling stations amid AfD speculation that voter fraud has taken place, particularly in postal voting, with specific focus on a retirement home. State authorities have denied the claims.