Holborn and St Pancras could be key test for Labour and the Greens
The resignation of former Prime Minister Keir Starmer as an MP has set up a major by-election in Holborn and St Pancras, an inner London seat that has been part of the Labour leader’s political base for 11 years.
Starmer said it was now “time to step aside”, and the move comes as Westminster returns from recess after a long summer. The contest is being watched closely because it could shape the wider direction of the left and centre-left, with Labour, the Green Party and their leaders all having a stake in the result.
A seat Labour once treated as safe
When Starmer first emerged as a possible successor to Frank Dobson MP in Camden Labour circles in early 2014, Holborn and St Pancras was considered a safe Labour seat. He won comfortably at the general election in 2015, and again in 2017 and 2019, with majorities of around 30,000.
But the picture changed at the 2024 general election. Against the backdrop of the Gaza conflict, and Starmer’s own initial response to the October 7 attacks on Israel, local left-wing campaigner Andrew Feinstein cut Labour’s majority down to just over 11,000.
That would still not normally be enough to worry Labour in a general election, but a by-election can be far more volatile.
Greens see an opening
The main challenge is expected to come from the Green Party. The party took several seats from Labour across Camden in May’s local elections, along with others elsewhere in London. Green Party leader Zack Polanski has also confirmed he intends to run.
For Labour, the timing is awkward. The party is in the middle of redefining itself under new Prime Minister Andy Burnham, and a poor result in Holborn and St Pancras would hand momentum to its opponents.
Activists from both parties have already been out on the streets in the constituency, which stretches through Camden to Euston Road and beyond to the fringes of the City.
Why the result matters
Who Labour selects as its candidate is likely to matter, especially with Polanski expected to be the Green standard-bearer. Labour will want someone strong enough to handle a campaign that could attract national attention and heavy scrutiny.
For the Greens, a win would be a significant breakthrough. It would give Polanski a platform in Westminster and could strengthen the party’s prospects in other Labour-held areas of London at the next general election.
Labour, meanwhile, will see the contest as a chance to stop that momentum. A win in Holborn and St Pancras would help Burnham’s party reassert its authority and preserve the status quo.
At this stage, Labour remains the favourite. But with the Greens pressing hard and the seat now open, this is a race with little room for complacency.
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