Edinburgh — Scottish Government ministers have been warned that plans to extend the presumption against short sentences could put victims of serious crime at risk by keeping more offenders out of prison.
Consultation on prison reform
The government is consulting on whether judges should be discouraged from issuing custodial sentences of less than two years, following recommendations from the Scottish Sentencing and Penal Policy Commission.
At present, judges in Scotland are discouraged from giving prison terms of less than a year. The policy was originally applied only to sentences of three months or less before being extended in 2019.
The consultation, which closed today, said the impact of changing the scheme was “not clear”. It also pointed to 2023-24 statistics showing that sentences of 12 months or less accounted for 73% of all convictions during that period.
Scotland’s prison population stood at 8,517 last month, including around 1,700 inmates on remand and awaiting trial. Officials have warned the total could rise to about 9,500 within the next decade unless action is taken to ease pressure on the prison estate.
Concerns over violent and sexual offending
Campaigners have warned that hundreds of violent offenders could avoid prison under the plans.
Leya Terra, the former director of Women and Girls in Scotland, produced a report warning that judges would stop considering crimes involving weapon possession, housebreaking, robbery, certain sexual crimes and offences involving indecent images of children.
The report says custodial sentences must take into account the impact offending has on victims, and told ministers this “must not be ignored”. It said: “Most victims believed the sentences in their case failed to proportionately acknowledge the harm done to them and the impact of those harms, as well as failing to understand their needs and the nature of the offending and the offender, and that sentences often seemed too lenient.”
Ms Terra said: “This will foreseeably lead to more dangerous men spending more time on the streets and being more able to and less deterred from, victimising women and girls.”
The report warned the changes would “send the message that male violence against women and girls is now deemed less serious and carries less risk for offenders”.
It also said the “plans for prison reform have extremely serious, adverse implications for female victims, as well as women and girls more broadly”.
Police and ministerial response
Jo Farrell, the Chief Constable of Police Scotland, described violence against women and girls as a “growing threat” earlier this year after officers reported dealing with an average of 200 cases each day.
There were 3,229 rape and attempted rape crimes in 2025-26, up 11% on the previous year and 72% higher than in 2016-17.
Justice Secretary Neil Gray said: “Violence against women is abhorrent, and we are working closely with partners, including Police Scotland, to tackle it.
“We are taking a range of actions to address the unsustainable prison population, including building two new prisons and maximising capacity across the existing prison estate. We are also consulting on proposed reforms to achieve a more sustainable prison population while maintaining public protection, supporting victims, reducing offending and preventing reoffending.
“I want to thank those who have contributed to the consultation so far. As part of this process, I have met with victims’ organisations to hear their views and the experiences of those they represent. We have also engaged directly with organisations focused on tackling violence against women and girls to listen to their concerns, and that dialogue is ongoing.”
The Scottish Government is also considering whether criminals serving more than five years could be freed automatically after two-thirds of their sentence, with the remainder served under supervision in the community.