The Resolution Foundation, in its instant of the Tory manifesto, also says that the richest fifth of households will benefit most from the plans it contains. Total tax giveaways announced in the manifesto today amount to £17.2bn a year by the end of the decade. RF analysis of these tax cuts (which excludes the one-off Stamp Duty cut for first-time buyers) shows that the biggest gainers overall are the richest fifth of households, who are set to gain £1,300 on average, compared to the poorest fifth who would gain £150. The tax and spend pledges announced today sit on top of already announced tax rises worth £23bn, and an implied £21bn cut to unprotected departments, all of which would be needed for an incoming Conservative government to meet its key fiscal rule of having debt fall as a share of the economy in five years’ time.
Richest families will gain most from Tory tax cut plans, says thinktank, and proposals don’t pass ‘plausibility test’ – UK politics live | Politics
Richest 20% of families will gain most from tax cut plans in Tory manifesto, says Resolution Foundation
The Resolution Foundation, in its instant of the Tory manifesto, also says that the richest fifth of households will benefit most from the plans it contains. It says:
Total tax giveaways announced in the manifesto today amount to £17.2bn a year by the end of the decade. RF analysis of these tax cuts (which excludes the one-off Stamp Duty cut for first-time buyers) shows that the biggest gainers overall are the richest fifth of households, who are set to gain £1,300 on average, compared to the poorest fifth who would gain £150.
And this is how it sums up the plans.
The tax and spend pledges announced today sit on top of already announced tax rises worth £23bn, and an implied £21bn cut to unprotected departments (given today’s commitment to increase defence spending), all of which would be needed for an incoming Conservative government to meet its key fiscal rule of having debt fall as a share of the economy in five years’ time (a rule reaffirmed in the manifesto).
This would leave the next parliament as a whole as one of modest tax rises, major spending cuts, and heroic efforts on the part of both HMRC and DWP to find £6bn of extra tax avoidance and benefit cuts in nine months’ time. The Foundation cautions that even if this were to be achieved, if key fiscal risks – such as lower productivity growth – become fiscal reality then this could blow another £17bn hole in these plans.
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Key events
33m ago
Mishal Husain to chair BBC’s Sunak/Starmer debate, after Sophie Raworth pulls out due to fractured ankle
1h ago
Richest 20% of families will gain most from tax cut plans in Tory manifesto, says Resolution Foundation
2h ago
Resolution Foundation thinktank says Tory plans for tax cuts funded welfare savings struggle to pass ‘plausibility test’
2h ago
IFS says Tories unlikely to raise £12bn from welfare reforms they say will fund their planned tax cuts
3h ago
What Tory manifesto says about leaving, or not leaving, European court of human rights
3h ago
How Tories would cut taxes by £17bn by end of decade, with savings from welfare reform and tackling tax gap
3h ago
Tory manifesto ‘a recipe for five more years of chaos,’ says Labour
3h ago
Man arrested after objects thrown at Nigel Farage during campaign event
4h ago
Sunak claims tax burden would be 1% lower under Tory plans than otherwise forecast
4h ago
Sunak says he accepts people are ‘frustrated’ with Tories, and with him personally – but claims Labour would be worse
4h ago
Sunak says Tories would abolish main rate of self-employed national insurance
4h ago
Rishi Sunak launches Tory manifesto
5h ago
Starmer confirms Labour would ban sale of high caffeinated energy drinks to under-16s
5h ago
Tory Help to Buy scheme may push up house prices, Institute for Fiscal Studies says
5h ago
Starmer accuses Sunak of having ‘Jeremy Corbyn-style manifesto, a recipe for chaos’
5h ago
UNHCR investigating fresh human rights abuse claims in Rwanda, court told
5h ago
Former Scottish Greens co-leader Robin Harper joins Labour
6h ago
Douglas Ross admits he’s quitting as Scottish Tory leader partly because colleagues angry he’s trying to stay in Commons
6h ago
Overseas voters urged to register to vote in election before next week’s deadline
6h ago
Cabinet secretary Simon Case hints Tories could be doing more to uphold civil service impartiality in election campaign
7h ago
Rishi Sunak to publish Tory manifesto as party ads warn of Labour getting ‘massive’ majority
Mishal Husain to chair BBC’s Sunak/Starmer debate, after Sophie Raworth pulls out due to fractured ankle
Alexandra Topping
BBC news presenter Sophie Raworth has pulled out of hosting the head-to-head debate between Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer, The Prime Ministerial Debate, which will now be broadcast on BBC One and BBC iPlayer from 8.15pm to 9.30pm on Wednesday 26 June.
The BBC said Raworth has asked to step down as the host of the debate after fracturing her ankle, with Mishal Husain now taking on the role.
Raworth had to pull out of the London Marathon in April after 20 miles after seriously injuring her ankle.
Meanwhile…. I had a great 20 mile race. Missed the last 6.2 miles 🤦♀️ First DNF. Or DMB (Did My Best) when my ankle
blew up. 🤷♀️ See you London Marathon 2025 … pic.twitter.com/OYHbsgxDCh
— Sophie Raworth running… (@Raworthontherun) April 22, 2024
She said:
The injury I picked up at the London marathon has now been diagnosed as a fracture in my ankle. I was only told this last week during the D-day commemorations. I’m now on crutches, in a boot and non-weight-bearing for some time.
Mishal Husain is a fantastic presenter and will be brilliant at moderating what is a really important debate for both the two leaders and the BBC. I’m delighted she is doing it.
Husain, who hosted the BBC’s first debate with representatives from seven parties on Friday, said Raworth had worked at a “remarkable” pace in recent weeks despite her injury. She said:
I can’t see myself ever stepping into her running shoes but she can count on me for this, as the two prime ministerial candidates face each other for their last television encounter.
Jonathan Munro, Deputy CEO of BBC News, said:
Mishal did an outstanding job on Friday [chairing the seven-party debate] – the BBC is very fortunate to have such a wealth of talent to draw upon. We’re wishing Sophie a speedy recovery; it seems it’s not only football managers who need to worry about foot injuries!
Mishal Husain. Photograph: Pal Hansen/The ObserverShare
In the section on Wales, the Conservative manifesto says:
We will expand our backing drivers’ bill to cover Wales, reversing Labour’s blanket 20mph speed limit by requiring local consent for 20mph zones and giving local communities the legal right to challenge existing zones.
In a thread on X, Ben Summer from WalesOnline says this is misleading. It starts here.
NEW: The Tories have promised to scrap the 20mph policy in Wales. Only one issue: They can’t, and they know it.
THREAD 🧵
— Ben Summer (@bm_summer) June 11, 2024
NEW: The Tories have promised to scrap the 20mph policy in Wales. Only one issue: They can’t, and they know it.
And here are some of his posts where he explains that the Tories are not planning just to ignore devolution.
The Tories aren’t planning to repeal devolution by brute-forcing the policy through – but this is where it gets more confusing. After we pushed them on it, the Tories clarified the plan ISN’T to automatically try and get the legislation through in Wales
Instead they would pass the bill in Westminster and ask for a legislative consent motion from the Senedd – effectively, permission – to expand it to Wales.
This was previously used for post-Brexit legislation but it would be pretty unlikely the Welsh Government would agree to it
So within about an hour we’ve gone from “we will expand our Backing Drivers’ Bill to cover Wales, reversing Labour’s blanket 20mph speed limit” to “The UK Government will work with the Senedd to pass a motion to show their support”
A bit different.
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Updated at 15.49 BST
Richard Adams
The Conservative manifesto’s headline promise for education is to keep spending on England’s schools at its current level – which is another way of saying that schools wouldn’t be hit by the spending cuts proposed elsewhere in the manifesto.
But even that commitment only extends to pupils up to the age of 16. The manifesto pledge won’t protect colleges or sixth forms, while the other new pledges are minor or cost-free, including a new law to ban mobile phones in schools (see 2.27pm), another law to mandate a minimum of two hours PE per week – already in the national curriculum – and a promise to build 15 new special schools.
School leaders said they were underwhelmed by the offer. Pepe Di’Iasio, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, said:
This is a collection of recycled policies with nothing new to say about how the Conservatives would deal with the shortage of funding, teachers and the crisis in special educational needs provision.
The pledge to protect day-to-day school spending in real terms per pupil is the bare minimum. In reality the costs that schools actually face are often higher than inflation and they are starting from a point of seeing budget cuts over the past 14 years.
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Richest 20% of families will gain most from tax cut plans in Tory manifesto, says Resolution Foundation
The Resolution Foundation, in its instant of the Tory manifesto, also says that the richest fifth of households will benefit most from the plans it contains. It says:
Total tax giveaways announced in the manifesto today amount to £17.2bn a year by the end of the decade. RF analysis of these tax cuts (which excludes the one-off Stamp Duty cut for first-time buyers) shows that the biggest gainers overall are the richest fifth of households, who are set to gain £1,300 on average, compared to the poorest fifth who would gain £150.
And this is how it sums up the plans.
The tax and spend pledges announced today sit on top of already announced tax rises worth £23bn, and an implied £21bn cut to unprotected departments (given today’s commitment to increase defence spending), all of which would be needed for an incoming Conservative government to meet its key fiscal rule of having debt fall as a share of the economy in five years’ time (a rule reaffirmed in the manifesto).
This would leave the next parliament as a whole as one of modest tax rises, major spending cuts, and heroic efforts on the part of both HMRC and DWP to find £6bn of extra tax avoidance and benefit cuts in nine months’ time. The Foundation cautions that even if this were to be achieved, if key fiscal risks – such as lower productivity growth – become fiscal reality then this could blow another £17bn hole in these plans.
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Resolution Foundation thinktank says Tory plans for tax cuts funded welfare savings struggle to pass ‘plausibility test’
The Resolution Foundation has also published a swift analysis of the Tory manifesto plans. The RF and the IFS are the two leading thinktanks on public spending and the verdict from the RF is much the same as the IFS’s (see 1.56pm) – it says it is not convinced the plans pass the “plausibility test”.
This is from Mike Brewer, interim chief executive at the Resolution Foundation.
The Conservatives have trebled down on making employee national insurance rate cuts the centrepiece of their manifesto. This is a welcome focus for cutting taxes compared to the alternatives being mooted, but it’s a stark reversal from autumn 2022, when then Chancellor Sunak proposed raising it to 13.25 per cent to fund social care.
Furthermore, given the weak state of the public finances, these fresh tax cuts rest on already announced tax rises, heroic efforts to reduce tax avoidance, and £33bn of combined cuts to disability benefits and public services that will be extremely challenging to deliver. That may explain why there is scant detail on these cuts.
There are big questions over whether doubling down on firm tax commitments, funded by pledges to massively cut spending in record time, really passes the plausibility test, or whether this approach answers the big economic challenge Britain faces on growth.
The unspoken issue looming over this manifesto is that it will only take a small dose of bad economic news for these plans to fall foul of the fiscal rules, and for a future Conservative government’s tax and spend plans to have to return to the drawing board.
The previous chief executive of the Resolution Foundation, Torsten Bell, recently left the thinktank to stand as a Labour candidate. But the organisation is not partisan; its president, David Willetts, is former Tory minister.
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Updated at 14.44 BST
This is from the Sun’s political editor Harry Cole, who has just been at the Tory briefing on the manifesto.
Tory manifesto authors just did a briefing.
Told this “requirement” for schools to follow advice on banning mobiles in classrooms would be a law change.
But manifesto stops short of anything near what campaigners want in a smartphone ban for under 16s… spokesman says… pic.twitter.com/qslbFGEBbZ
— Harry Cole (@MrHarryCole) June 11, 2024
Tory manifesto authors just did a briefing.
Told this “requirement” for schools to follow advice on banning mobiles in classrooms would be a law change.
But manifesto stops short of anything near what campaigners want in a smartphone ban for under 16s… spokesman says…
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Here is a take on the manifesto from ITV’s Robert Peston.
Sunak’s election strategy is old-fashioned. It’s a promise (bribe) of tax cuts for pretty much every demographic: employees, the self-employed, families with children on above-average incomes, pensioners, and first-time house buyers. His hope is that significant numbers of…
— Robert Peston (@Peston) June 11, 2024
Sunak’s election strategy is old-fashioned. It’s a promise (bribe) of tax cuts for pretty much every demographic: employees, the self-employed, families with children on above-average incomes, pensioners, and first-time house buyers. His hope is that significant numbers of them, who may be thinking of voting Labour or Reform, will instead put an X next to the Tory candidate’s name, once they are in the privacy of the polling-station cubicle and where no one can ever know what they’ve done. “It’s a slightly cynical bet on human nature” said one of his closer ministerial colleagues. He’s right. But as I put to the PM in my question at the Manifesto launch, the strategy only works if voters believe the actions of the Tories in government for 14 years, where they’ve been raising the burden of taxes to levels we’ve not experienced since the late 1940s, are an anomaly, and should not be seen as a signifier of things to come. It is all about the credibility of jam tomorrow, and the credibility of Sunak as the jam maker
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Welfare charities have expressed alarm about the proposals in the Tory manifesto to save £12bn from benefit cuts.
Alison Garnham, chief executive of the Child Poverty Action Group, said:
The PM’s commitment to increasing the number of families receiving child benefit is welcome but reducing entitlements to disability benefits and increasing sanctions in our social security system will make some of the worst-off families even more insecure.
And Paul Carberry, chief executive of Action for Children, said:
Today’s manifesto launch shows the Conservatives remain stalled on child poverty. It offers little to ease the desperate plight of millions of children growing up in the shadow of austerity, the pandemic and economic uncertainty.
The Conservatives’ plan to save £12bn by making welfare reforms looks set to hugely impact disabled people and those with mental health conditions who face barriers to work, causing yet more needless hardship for families with children. Higher earners would gain from changes to child benefit and national insurance, while families in poverty would remain trapped.
Garnham and Carberry also both criticised the Tories for not including in the manifesto a pledge to get rid of the two-child benefit cap.
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IFS says Tories unlikely to raise £12bn from welfare reforms they say will fund their planned tax cuts
The Institute for Fiscal Studies thinktank has published an initial response to the plans in the Tory manifesto. It’s from Paul Johnson, its director. He says that he doubts the welfare reforms proposed will deliver the £12bn savings needed for tax cuts, and that the manifesto is “silent on the wider problems facing core public services”.
Here is an excerpt.
The Conservatives have promised some £17bn per year of tax cuts, and a big hike in defence spending. That is supposedly funded by reducing the projected welfare bill by £12bn; cracking down on tax avoidance and evasion; and saving billions from cutting civil service numbers, reducing spending on management consultants, and “quango efficiencies”. Those are definite giveaways paid for by uncertain, unspecific and apparently victimless savings. Forgive a degree of scepticism …
Spending on health-related benefits has ballooned – a doubling in the number of new claims for disability benefits each month compared with 2019.
So it is right to identify this as a challenge to address. The trouble is the policies that have been spelt out are not up to the challenge of saving £12bn a year. Some have already been announced and included in the official fiscal forecasts; others are unlikely to deliver sizeable savings on the timescale that the Conservatives claim. The hope seems to be that, since spending on disability benefits is rising rapidly, one can simply “reform disability benefits” and hold spending down. But halving the number of people that successfully apply for disability benefits from its current level would not be easy and would need definite, clear policies that require difficult decisions. These are not stated.
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What Tory manifesto says about leaving, or not leaving, European court of human rights
This is what the Conservative manifesto says about leaving the European court of human rights (ECtHR) – or, rather, not leaving it.
We will run a relentless, continual process of permanently removing illegal migrants to Rwanda with a regular rhythm of flights every month, starting this July, until the boats are stopped. If we are forced to choose between our security and the jurisdiction of a foreign court, including the ECtHR, we will always choose our security.
This goes no further than what Rishi Sunak has been saying for months, and will disappoint Tories pushing for a much stronger commitment to possible withdrawal.
As Pippa Crerar points out, it is not even particularly clear what Sunak is saying.
Rishi Sunak, asked whether Tories would withdraw from ECHR, says he’s been “crystal clear”.
“If I’m forced to choose between securing our borders and our country’s security or a foreign court, I’m going to choose our country’s security every single time.”
Not entirely sure…
— Pippa Crerar (@PippaCrerar) June 4, 2024
Rishi Sunak, asked whether Tories would withdraw from ECHR, says he’s been “crystal clear”.
“If I’m forced to choose between securing our borders and our country’s security or a foreign court, I’m going to choose our country’s security every single time.”
Not entirely sure that *is* crystal clear
Keir Starmer says he won’t pull out of international agreements because he doesn’t want UK to be “pariah” on global stage.
Rishi Sunak speaking at his manifesto launch. Photograph: James Manning/PAShare
How Tories would cut taxes by £17bn by end of decade, with savings from welfare reform and tackling tax gap
Here are the charts from the costings document published alongside the Tory manifesto explaining where they would cut taxes, where they would spend more, and how they would save money.
How Tories would cut taxes by £17.2bn a year by end of decade
How Tories would cut taxes by £17.2bn by end of decade Photograph: CCHQ
How Tories would save £18bn a year by end of decade from welfare savings and tackling tax gap
How Tories would save £18bn from welfare reform and tackling tax gap Photograph: CCHQ
Other Tory plans to spend and save money
Other Tory plans to spend and save money Photograph: CCHQ
Overall summary of impact of Tory plans
Overall summary of impact of Tory plans Photograph: CCHQShare
Tory manifesto ‘a recipe for five more years of chaos,’ says Labour
Labour says the Tory manifesto is a recipe for more chaos. Giving his party’s response, Pat McFadden, Labour’s national campaign coordinator, said:
This Conservative manifesto is a recipe for five more years of Tory chaos.
After 14 years in power, the prime minister’s desperate manifesto published today is stuffed full of unfunded spending commitments.
The prime minister that was brought in to be the antidote to the chaos of Liz Truss has instead become the next instalment of the same thing.
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Updated at 13.23 BST
Man arrested after objects thrown at Nigel Farage during campaign event
A 28-year-old man has been arrested on suspicion of public order offences after objects were thrown at Nigel Farage when he was campaigning, PA Media reports. PA says:
The Reform UK leader was on top of a party battle bus in Barnsley, South Yorkshire, this morning, when a cup was thrown, narrowly missing him.
A man in a red hoodie could be seen shouting from a work site below, before reaching into a bucket and throwing something else, which also missed.
Workmen appeared to then haul the man from the site and he ran off, before police officers tackled him.
South Yorkshire police said: “We have arrested a 28-year-old man on suspicion of public order offences following disorder in Barnsley town centre today. It is believed that the man threw objects from a nearby construction area. A suspect was quickly detained and remains in police custody.”
Farage said he believes the objects were some wet cement and a coffee cup.
He posted the footage on X, formerly Twitter, saying: “My huge thanks to South Yorkshire Police today. I will not be bullied or cowed by a violent left-wing mob who hate our country.”
Farage had been warned by police not to get off the bus.
It comes after Victoria Thomas Bowen, 25, was charged with assault by beating and criminal damage when a milkshake was thrown over Mr Farage as he left the Moon and Starfish Wetherspoons pub in Clacton-on-Sea in Essex on Tuesday last week.
Nigel Farage has objects thrown at him while campaigning in South Yorkshire – videoShare
Updated at 14.53 BST
Q: What is on offer for children with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND)?
Sunak says the Tories are proposing more SEND school places.
And that is the end of the launch.
More reaction and analysis coming soon.
Rishi Sunak in silhouette at the Tory manifesto launch.
Photograph: Benjamin Cremel/ReutersShare
Read the full story on www.theguardian.com
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/jun/11/tory-conservative-manifesto-rishi-sunak-uk-general-election-keir-starmer-labour-latest-live-updates