Schools in England are facing a funding crisis as researchers warn that up to £1bn could be lost by 2030 due to a significant decline in pupil numbers. This alarming trend has already led to mergers and closures in parts of London, with more areas projected to follow suit.
According to the Education Policy Institute (EPI), the north-east is expected to see the greatest decline in primary pupil numbers, down 13% by 2028/9. At the secondary level, Yorkshire and the Humber, as well as the north-east and London, are also projected to experience large falls in pupil numbers.
The decline in pupil numbers is mainly attributed to a falling birthrate, but migration patterns have also played a role, particularly in London, where young families are moving out due to high rents and living costs, as well as post-Covid flight and Brexit.
The EPI report highlights the challenges that schools will face as their budgets contract due to fewer pupils causing income to fall, while costs remain high. This could lead to difficult decisions such as mergers, cost-cutting measures, and ultimately school closures.
Pepe Di’Iasio, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, emphasized the need for the government to address this funding crisis and ensure that schools are not left to manage the financial risk on their own.
While the Department for Education (DfE) has stated that funding levels beyond 2024/25 are unconfirmed and subject to future spending reviews, they have reassured that school funding will increase to £60.7bn next year, the highest level ever in real terms per pupil.
As schools grapple with the challenges posed by declining pupil numbers, policymakers and education leaders must work together to find sustainable solutions to ensure that all students receive a quality education despite the financial constraints.