Morgan Stanley Research predicts ‘cooling’ U.S. economy, 3 rate cuts ahead
In a recent note, Morgan Stanley Research has indicated that the U.S. economy is showing signs of cooling, with disinflation expected to resume in April’s CPI print and accelerate in the latter half of 2024. The bank stated, “Weaker monthly prints ahead with faster disinflation starting in 2H24 should provide the Fed the confidence it needs that inflation is on a sustained path toward target.” They further added, “We remain bullish the Fed will cut three times this year — but starting in September rather than July — with two more cuts in November and December.”
Amidst this economic backdrop, Morgan Stanley Research expressed a preference for consumer staples stocks over their discretionary counterparts. They highlighted, “We see the U.S. Consumer Staples sector as a beneficiary of trade-down from Discretionary categories; further, relative earnings revisions of Staples vs. Discretionary has recently turned higher, pointing to potential upside in relative stock performance by Staples from here.”
This forecast from Morgan Stanley Research comes at a time when investors are closely watching key economic indicators for clues on the future direction of the U.S. economy. The upcoming inflation reports, including the consumer price index report due on Wednesday, will be closely monitored for any potential impact on Federal Reserve policy decisions.
As the market continues to navigate through these uncertain times, Morgan Stanley Research’s insights provide valuable perspective on the evolving economic landscape and potential investment opportunities.
By Lisa Kailai Han