In the upcoming 2024 presidential race, there is a new player on the field – Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., an Independent candidate running against Joe Biden and Donald Trump. But who is this third-party candidate and what are his chances of winning the White House?
Allan Lichtman, a professor of history at American University in Washington, D.C., has correctly predicted the outcome of nine out of the 10 most recent presidential elections since 1984. Lichtman uses a unique method based on 13 historical factors or “keys” to determine the outcome of presidential races. According to his method, the incumbent party would need to lose six of these keys to lose the White House.
Lichtman’s predictions are based on a collaboration with a leading earthquake specialist from Moscow in 1981, where they re-conceptualized presidential elections in terms of stability and earthquake. Through their research, they developed the “13 Keys to the White House” which are simple true-false questions that probe the strength and performance of the White House party.
In the 2020 election, Lichtman correctly predicted that Trump would lose and Biden would win. He attributes Trump’s loss to his handling of the pandemic and the resulting economic downturn, which led to the loss of key factors for the White House party.
Looking ahead to the 2024 election, Lichtman has not yet unveiled his prediction but believes that Biden has a strong chance of winning based on his analysis of the keys. However, he notes that there are some shaky factors, such as the third-party key and social unrest, that could potentially impact the outcome.
As Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. enters the race as an Independent candidate, his performance and the stability of his campaign will be key factors to watch. With the unpredictability of politics, anything can happen in the upcoming election, and all eyes will be on the candidates as they vie for the presidency.