Nvidia’s Outperformance of Bitcoin Unlikely to Repeat in Next Decade, Crypto Executives Warn
In a surprising turn of events, technology company Nvidia (NVDA) has outperformed Bitcoin (BTC) over the past ten years, leading to speculation about the future performance of these assets. However, crypto executives are cautioning against using Nvidia’s past success as an indicator for the next decade.
According to Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten, there is a “near zero chance of Nvidia outperforming Bitcoin over the next 10 years.” This sentiment was echoed by investment strategist Lyn Alden, who stated, “I’d pick Bitcoin over Nvidia for the next ten years, personally.”
Between May 23, 2014, and May 23, 2024, Nvidia has returned an impressive 21,558%, while Bitcoin has returned 13,048%, according to Statmuse data. Despite this, over the past three months, Bitcoin has slightly outperformed Nvidia, with returns of 31.7% and 30.2% respectively, since the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on Jan. 10.
The Kobeissi Letter highlighted the staggering growth of a $10,000 investment in Nvidia stock in 1999, which is now worth $25.3 million. This raises questions about the perceived riskiness of investing in Nvidia back in 2014, when both Bitcoin and AI had less widespread adoption.
While some believe that the potential of AI may have been underestimated in 2014, others argue that financial assets like Bitcoin have a broader domino effect as more people begin to use them. Co-founder of 21st.capital, known as “Sina,” pointed out that there are no network effects in AI, while there are multiple layers of network effects in money.
Despite optimistic predictions for Bitcoin’s performance in the next 24 months, there are also warnings of a significant correction. Former physics professor Giovanni Santostasi, using his “Power Law” model, predicts that Bitcoin could reach a peak of $210,000 in January 2026 and then fall as low as $60,000 afterward.
As the debate continues about the future performance of Nvidia and Bitcoin, it is clear that both assets have unique characteristics that will shape their trajectories in the coming years. Investors and analysts will be closely watching to see how these trends unfold in the ever-evolving landscape of technology and finance.