Bim Afolami, economic secretary to the Treasury, emphasized Tory claims that Labour would raise taxes during the media round for the Conservatives. However, he was repeatedly questioned about Reform UK closing the gap on the Conservatives in some polling. Afolami stated that the Conservatives have not accepted defeat in the election and are fighting for every vote. He addressed polling for Reform UK, highlighting the potential consequences of Keir Starmer having unchecked power if people vote for Reform. Afolami acknowledged the frustration of Conservative voters but emphasized the party’s efforts to secure every vote. He also discussed the challenges faced by the current parliament, including the impact of Covid, the war in Ukraine, and rising energy prices. Despite these difficulties, he expressed confidence in the prime minister’s ability to stabilize the situation and turn the economy around. Afolami’s responses to questions about the relative performances of Reform UK and the Conservatives reflected the party’s determination to address voter concerns and secure support in the ongoing campaign.
General election live: minister admits Reform UK’s poll showing is a ‘stark warning’ for Tories | Politics
Treasury minister Bim Afolami: Conservatives ‘have not accepted we’re going to lose this election’
Bim Afolami, economic secretary to the Treasury, was on the media round for the Conservatives this morning. The message he was keen to push was Tory claims that Labour would raise taxes to fund their manifesto policies, however he was repeatedly sidetracked by questions about Reform UK closing the gap on the Conservatives in some polling.
On Times Radio, asked if warnings that Labour might earn what had been described as a “super majority*” showed the party was resigned to defeat, Afolami said “No, we have not accepted we’re going to lose this election, of course not, we’re fighting for every vote.”
On the topic of polling for Reform UK, he said:
Polls are polls, there’s pretty much a poll every single day in this campaign, there’ll be more, it’s one poll out of literally hundreds.
But what it does show is that there is significant difficulty of Keir Starmer having unchecked power to do all the things like tax your home, your job, your car and your pension if people vote Reform. A vote for Reform is a vote for Keir Starmer.
I completely understand if there are Conservative voters who feel frustrated or angry or they don’t feel at the moment that they want to support the Conservatives – and that’s what we’re fighting for, every single vote in this campaign.
On LBC he also faced questions about the relative performances of Reform UK and the Conservatives. Nick Ferrari put it to him “Just a few short years ago, your party enjoyed an extraordinary majority of some 80 seats in a general election. You’re now, it would appear, behind Reform. What makes your party so unpopular?”
Afolami said:
This parliament has seen unprecedented things. Covid, a once in a 100 year pandemic, the war on Ukraine quadrupling energy prices, leading to very high levels of inflation, and that’s had a huge impact on people’s lives. And it’s been very, very difficult for so many people in this country. But as I say, despite that difficulty we’ve come through it and the prime minister since coming in to stabilise the situation and now the economy is turning the corner.
Last month’s GDP figures flatlined after showing a meagre 0.4% growth the month before.
[*There is no such thing as a “super majority” in the UK parliament.]
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Key events
Talking of football, which regular readers of my stints on this blog will know I always enjoy shoehorning in somehow, Rishi Sunak said he and Olaf Scholz were talking to Giorgia Meloni about setting up a TV so they could watch the Scotland v Germany match at the informal G7 leaders’ dinner tonight.
“I was talking to Olaf about it yesterday actually, so we were trying to figure out – Giorgia was trying to figure out where we can put a TV somewhere around this thing this evening,” the prime minister told journalists travelling with him in Puglia.
Sunak, who famously supports Southampton and is sometimes seen at their matches, made a gaffe early in the election campaign when he asked people in Wales if they were looking forward to all the football in the summer, apparently forgetting that in March a defeat on penalties in the playoff final in Cardiff to Poland meant that Wales did not qualify.
Rishi Sunak at St Mary’s Stadium in May for Southampton’s play-off semi-final. Photograph: Adam Davy/PA
John Swinney will be attending the Scotland game in Munich tonight in person.
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Laura Trott: Reform UK overtaking Tories in YouGov poll is ‘stark warning’
Chief secretary to the Treasury Laura Trott has said that a YouGov poll that puts Reform ahead of the Conservatives is a “stark warning”, but ruled out the party doing any deals with Nigel Farage.
She said:
The Conservative party are fighting every single day in this election. Look we are only halfway through, right, things can change. We’ve all seen things change in elections, but the poll is a stark warning.
If a result like this is replicated on election day it would hand Keir Starmer huge and unchecked power to tax your home, your job, your car, your pension, however he wants.
And we’re fighting for every vote. And I know from my own conversations with voters, that the choice is very clear. A vote for anyone other than Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives is a vote for Keir Starmer as prime minister.
This poll today is a stark warning. I’m not going to underplay it.
The YouGov poll in question, issued last night, put Reform UK one point ahead of the Tories, which was, it noted, “still within the margin of error”.
Trott said that she did not think the Reform UK plan to raise the threshold for paying the basic rate of income tax to £20,000 was “affordable.”
Chris Hope from GB News offered an extended football analogy by way of his question, saying to Trott “the Euros start this weekend. If the Tories are a football team, you’re 4-0 down and the crowd is booing you. Isn’t it time to do a deal with a striker on a rival team and get Nigel Farage to do a deal with the Tory party and see off Labour?”
Trott, laughing, said “Just on football, I’m afraid I’m not the right person to ask. But no.”
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Chief secretary to the Treasury Laura Trott has said there is a clear difference between Labour and Conservatives that amounts to “a £58bn difference in the offer that’s being put forward at this election.”
She told the media at a press conference in Westminster:
The Conservative party will cut your taxes. We will cut your taxes in numerous ways and what we saw from the Labour party is that their only plan is to put taxes up. And that is I think what is going to concentrate the minds of everybody in this general election.
Trott has doubled down on a claim that Labour are planning to impose capital gains tax on people’s first home:
The idea that Labour issecretly planning to put capital gains tax on your primary residence for the first time is a disastrous policy for families, up and down the country. It is something that the Labour party should not do in secret, they must be honest about their plans and the impact that this would have on family homes, up and down the country.
Trott says the fact that Labour hasn’t ruled this out contrasts with their approach on VAT where Labour “couldn’t get out there quick enough to say no, no, we’re not raising VAT.”
Taking questions after giving a talk that warned of 18 specific Labour tax rises, and asked about the higher tax levels the Conservatives have planned due to income tax thresholds, she said:
We’ve been very open and honest about the fact we’ve had to make some really difficult decisions because of Covid. And because of Putin’s illegal war in Ukraine, pushing up energy prices. But we’ve had to do things that we wouldn’t have wanted to do otherwise. But now there’s a clear choice in this election about who going forward is going to be cutting your taxes and who’s going to put them up.
Chief secretary to the Treasury Laura Trott responds to Labour’s manifesto launch during a press conference in Westminster. Photograph: Jordan Pettitt/PAShare
Shadow business secretary Jonathan Reynolds has been on the defensive in an interview on Sky News about whether the Labour manifesto lacks new ideas.
He told viewers:
We’re offering, when it comes to things like industrial strategy, like ambition on the energy transition – the most ambitious programme that actually has ever been offered by a potential incoming government on things like fuel poverty.
We’re offering on people’s employment rights and security in the workplace a comprehensive package that would make a difference to them, and we’re offering on public services, in health, in education, immediate improvements, immediate investment of resources that would make a difference.
Saying that “Labour had to respond to that big defeat in 2019”, he added Labour’s recent byelection victories had not been achieved “just because the Conservative party’s record in Government is dire.”
He said “If you are putting forward things that can’t be delivered, that will only increase cynicism in British politics
“What you see in the Labour manifesto is a set of proposals for genuine change that would make a real difference to people’s lives.”
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Chief secretary to the Treasury Laura Trott will respond to Labour’s Manifesto launch at a press conference in Westminster shortly. I will bring you any key lines that emerge. But before that I note that my colleague Libby Brooks has been suggesting her dog might be getting into the election podcast business.
It’s now the right time in the campaign for the dog to announce she’s starting her own election podcast. She’s doing it with another blonde Labrador three doors down because everybody else was too busy making their own election podcasts pic.twitter.com/rSDkNpmTMV
— Libby Brooks (@libby_brooks) June 14, 2024
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Libby Brooks is the Guardian’s Scotland correspondent, based in Glasgow
At a point in the election campaign when Keir Starmer says he reminds himself daily that “not a single vote has been cast”, here’s a boost for Labour that goes further than another landslide opinion poll.
A council byelection in the Clydebank Central ward of West Dunbartonshire Council showed a 12 per cent swing to Labour last night, electing Scottish Labour candidate Fiona Hennebry to what had been a safe SNP ward for over a decade.
Scottish Labour Deputy Leader Jackie Baillie described it as “an extraordinary result for Scottish Labour in one of the safest SNP wards in the country. The people of Clydebank Central have voted for change and on 4 July voters across Scotland will have the opportunity to do the same.”
It is perhaps also worth noting that turnout was significantly down on the 2022 council election, from 41 per to 24.3 per cent. Of course turnout tends to dip in a byelection, especially a local council one, but it does seem that voter disengagement and distrust is going to be one of the lasting themes of this campaign, as the British Social Attitudes Survey told us on Wednesday.
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At the Sinn Féin launch event in Belfast, party president Mary Lou McDonald has said a vote for the party was a vote for “hope and optimism, strong leadership and positive change.”
She told activists at the event:
It’s about an inclusive, modern, forward looking society. That is our vision and our mission in Sinn Féin. That is the vision of our amazing hard working candidates.
In this election. People can vote for decisions about their lives and their futures to be made here at home. They can vote to support better funding for services and to reject years of Tory cuts that have targeted and hurt ordinary people.
Positive change can only be delivered by working together in the executive and the assembly. And this election provides the opportunity to send a clear message about the type of future that we want.
The fantastic team of candidates that we have provides strong leadership will work hard for everyone in their communities.
Northern Ireland’s first minister Michelle O’Neill then introduced a series of candidates for the Westminster election, raising a laugh by pointing out that she had forgotten her glasses, and indeed appeared to get one candidate’s name wrong.
O’Neill said she believed that Sinn Féin would defend the seven Westminster seats it holds – but doesn’t take up – and that they would increase their vote.
O’Neill finished her intro by saying:
Our message in this election is one of hope. It is absolutely one of optimism. It is one of looking towards the future, and all of our MPs will work really hard for their constituencies, and working together, we can achieve so much more.
Our priority is to make politics work for people, because real change is about making people’s lives better. So I am asking people to journey forward with us to a better future, to endorse our vision, to seize this opportunity to return the strongest Sinn Féin team ever in this election.
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Here is a picture of the campaign event shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves and shadow secretary of state for business and trade Jonathan Reynolds were at in London this morning.
Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves and shadow secretary of state for business and trade Jonathan Reynolds speaking in London. Photograph: Lucy North/PAShare
Introducing a cap on adult social care costs by October next year is part of Labour’s plan if they win the election, Wes Streeting has insisted, although the pledge did not appear in the party’s manifesto.
Asked whether he could make a firm commitment to bringing in the cap in October 2025, PA Media reports he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “That’s the plan, as things stand. We don’t have any plans to change that situation and that’s the certainty and stability I want to give the system at this stage.”
Questioned on Labour’s national care service plan, Streeting said it will take a decade to put in place and that he wants it to last “the best part of the next century”.
He told listeners:
It’s going to take 10 years to build the kind of national care service that I think will last this country the best part of the next century. And that’s the scale of ambition that I have, that a Labour government would have. Change takes time, especially when the public finances are in the state they are and the catastrophic damage the Conservatives have done.
It’s been put to me repeatedly and to other Labour colleagues in recent days about the importance of honesty. And as we have said repeatedly, you know, our manifesto is a manifesto that’s fully costed and fully funded.
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Sinn Féin president Mary Lou McDonald, vice-president and first minister of Northern Ireland Michelle O’Neill and candidate and former MP for Belfast North John Finucane are expected to talk at their election launch event. We will bring you any key lines that emerge.
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Treasury minister Bim Afolami: Conservatives ‘have not accepted we’re going to lose this election’
Bim Afolami, economic secretary to the Treasury, was on the media round for the Conservatives this morning. The message he was keen to push was Tory claims that Labour would raise taxes to fund their manifesto policies, however he was repeatedly sidetracked by questions about Reform UK closing the gap on the Conservatives in some polling.
On Times Radio, asked if warnings that Labour might earn what had been described as a “super majority*” showed the party was resigned to defeat, Afolami said “No, we have not accepted we’re going to lose this election, of course not, we’re fighting for every vote.”
On the topic of polling for Reform UK, he said:
Polls are polls, there’s pretty much a poll every single day in this campaign, there’ll be more, it’s one poll out of literally hundreds.
But what it does show is that there is significant difficulty of Keir Starmer having unchecked power to do all the things like tax your home, your job, your car and your pension if people vote Reform. A vote for Reform is a vote for Keir Starmer.
I completely understand if there are Conservative voters who feel frustrated or angry or they don’t feel at the moment that they want to support the Conservatives – and that’s what we’re fighting for, every single vote in this campaign.
On LBC he also faced questions about the relative performances of Reform UK and the Conservatives. Nick Ferrari put it to him “Just a few short years ago, your party enjoyed an extraordinary majority of some 80 seats in a general election. You’re now, it would appear, behind Reform. What makes your party so unpopular?”
Afolami said:
This parliament has seen unprecedented things. Covid, a once in a 100 year pandemic, the war on Ukraine quadrupling energy prices, leading to very high levels of inflation, and that’s had a huge impact on people’s lives. And it’s been very, very difficult for so many people in this country. But as I say, despite that difficulty we’ve come through it and the prime minister since coming in to stabilise the situation and now the economy is turning the corner.
Last month’s GDP figures flatlined after showing a meagre 0.4% growth the month before.
[*There is no such thing as a “super majority” in the UK parliament.]
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Here is some of what I am expecting today. The Conservatives are due to hold a press conference this morning with chief secretary to the Treasury Laura Trott giving a response to the Labour manifesto.
For Labour, Rachel Reeves and Jonathan Reynolds are at the moment discussing the Labour manifesto with business leaders in London, and Wes Streeting will be out campaigning on mental health policies later.
Sinn Féin will be launching their election candidates at 10am. Deputy SNP leader Keith Brown has a media event this afternoon, as does Liberal Democrat deputy leader Daisy Cooper.
Away from the general election the Post Office Horizon IT inquiry starts at 9.45am, and I will be keeping half-an-ear on that in the background. There will be a silent memorial march to remember the victims of the Grenfell fire at 6pm.
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Updated at 10.03 BST
Rhun ap Iorwerth, Plaid Cymru leader, has been on BBC Breakfast this morning, where Naga Munchetty rather awkwardly stumbled over pronouncing his name, despite, she said, getting it right when they were practising it earlier.
He was asked whether the Labour leadership have engaged at all with Plaid Cymru’s policy aim of renegotiating the funding formula for Wales. Ap Iorwerth said:
The problem we have is that Labour doesn’t seem to want to engage with it. But Labour colleagues of Keir Starmer in Wales agree with us that there needs to be a review of the way Wales is funded. But what we have is a situation where Labour won’t make the case at Westminster for change.
In its manifesto, Plaid Cymru says it believes “Wales should be funded according to our needs, not the out-dated Barnett Formula which instead provides funding proportionate to spending on England’s needs. We want to see a new needs-based funding formula introduced in place of the Barnett Formula.”
Ap Iorwerth also said it was important to elect Plaid MPs in order to put pressure on what he expected to be an incoming Labour government. He told viewers:
We’re not going to be forming the next UK government, so it’s about how we use influence and I think in this election, perhaps it’s clearer than in any election for a while what that specific role is. I think we can be fairly sure that Keir Starmer will become prime minister in three weeks’ time. Conservatives at long last will be kicked out of power but Labour will need to be kept very, very firmly to account.
Keir Starmer will become prime minister regardless of what Wales says – I think that’s true for the rest of the UK – I’ll look at it from a Welsh perspective. We can try to mould the kind of change that’s going to happen in this election. Mmaking sure that labour are kept honest if you like, kept in check.
Asked whether he was enjoying the campaign, ap Iorwerth said he was, “very”, adding “I’ve got enough energy, thankfully and you need energy for an election campaign.”
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Paula Surridge
Paula Surridge is a professor of political sociology at the University of Bristol, and offers this analysis:
With Nigel Farage’s surprise takeover of Reform’s leadership at the start of the campaign, Reform poses an even greater challenge to the Conservatives in 2024. Its presence changes the dynamic of party competition in all types of seats, and as 2019 showed it does not need to win seats to damage the Tories.
Those on the left of British politics are well versed in this phenomenon: the left-leaning vote splitting over different parties and allowing the Conservatives to win seats they might not have won had the other parties worked together.
Electoral pacts and tactical voting advice have sought to reduce the impact of these splits on the left, and local election results suggest voters have become adept at working out how best to remove an incumbent Conservative.
This time, the right face these issues writ large. Even if parts of the right may be willing to countenance some kind of deal, voters choosing Reform UK are angry and disillusioned with the government and unlikely to vote tactically for Tories.
The combined impact of Reform increasing its vote share and standing candidates everywhere could be devastating for the Conservatives. As many as one in three voters who backed the Conservatives in 2019 are switching to Reform, according to some polling.
Read more of Paula Surridge’s analysis here: Reform’s split of right-leaning vote could prove devastating for Tories
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Sunak at G7: votes for Reform UK hand Labour ‘blank cheque’
Rishi Sunak has insisted that voting for Reform UK would be “handing Labour a blank cheque”, after he was asked about a YouGov poll that placed Nigel Farage’s party above his own.
Speaking to reporters from the G7 summit in Puglia, PA Media the prime minister said: “We are only halfway through this election, So I’m still fighting very hard for every vote.
“And what that poll shows is – the only poll that matters is the one on 4 July – but if that poll was replicated on 4 July, it would be handing Labour a blank cheque to tax everyone, tax their home, their pension, their car, their family, and I’ll be fighting very hard to make sure that doesn’t happen.
“And actually, when I’ve been out and about talking to people, they do understand that a vote for anyone who is not a Conservative candidate is just a vote to put Keir Starmer in No 10.”
Last night YouGov issued a poll that put Reform UK one point ahead of the Tories, which was, it noted, “still within the margin of error”. YouGov’s most recent seat projection suggested Reform UK was not on course to win any seats at the election.
The Guardian poll tracker, which is an average of polls over a moving 10-day period, has Sunak’s Conservatives on 23%, with Reform UK on 13%.
Appearing on BBC Breakfast this morning, Reform UK leader Farage said he hoped the party can “get through the electoral threshold” but declined to put a target on the number of seats he believes they can win.
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Streeting: rising NHS waiting lists in England ‘blow a hole in Rishi Sunak’s credibility’
Shadow health secretary Wes Streeting says rising NHS waiting lists in England have “blown a hole in Rishi Sunak’s credibility.
Asked on Sky News for his reaction to the latest figures, which show that NHS waiting lists in England have risen again slightly after falling for seven consecutive months from a record high, Streeting said:
I think they’ve blown a hole in Rishi Sunak credibility. You know, he said he would cut waiting lists when he became prime minister. They are now higher than they were when he became prime minister. And as we saw yesterday, they are rising.
The only way we’re going to get waiting lists down is if we have a Labour government that can deliver 40,000 more appointments every week. That’s a fully funded pledge in our manifesto. Double the number of scanners so that we can get the7.5 million on the waiting list down.
And also as we’re talking about today, an extra 8,500 mental health workers to get the more than a million people who are on mental health waiting lists for the treatment that they need and deserve as well.
He cited Labour’s track record when it was last in government, 14 years ago. He said “The last Labour government delivered the shortest waiting times and the highest patient satisfaction in the history of the NHS. We did it before, and with the support of the voters on 4 July, we can do it again.”
Health is a devolved matter, and the government in Westminster is only responsible for the NHS in England.
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Streeting: recklessness of Conservative economic policies have left Labour with hard choices
Shadow health secretary Wes Streeting has been pushed during the media round on the funding of Labour’s manifesto pledges. Labour have argued that the promises are fully costed and that there will be no tax rises for “working people”. The Conservatives have described the manifesto as a “tax trap”. Both parties are committed to the freezing of income tax thresholds over the next few years.
Streeting told viewers of Sky News that the party had made hard choices because if it got into power it would inherit public finances in a parlous state because of “the recklessness of the Conservative’s economic policies”. He continued:
We’ve spelled out fairer ways of funding those choices than the Conservatives, who’ve always sought to pick the pockets of working people as their first and last resort. And sothings like clamping down on tax avoidance, making sure that we close the remaining non-dom loopholes, a real windfall tax on the big oil and gas companies. When it comes to the burden of taxation on working people. We’ve been very clear we’re not going up top income tax, national insurance or VAT.
Streeting described Conservative manifesto promises as a “Liz Truss mini-budget on steroids”.
He said:
Rachel Reeves has been clear now as shadow chancellor. She wants to bring down the burden of taxation on working people. We’ve had to be careful about the promises we make in our manifesto. I want people to know that these are promises we can keep, and that the country can afford.
Of course we’d like to go further. But we’ve been very disciplined in terms of what goes into this manifesto so that people know it’s real change. It’s change they can believe in.
He continued:
I know there are millions of people out there at the moment who are undecided about how to vote at this general election, who are deeply cynical about politics and politicians.
And so what we’re trying to do as well as rebuilding our economy and rebuilding our public services, we are going to have to work very hard to rebuild trust in politics itself.
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Welcome to our live. UK politics coverage for Friday. We are now less than three weeks away from Polling day. Here are your headlines …
There is no business in the Scottish parliament, Senedd or Northern Ireland assembly today. The Post Office Horizon IT inquiry continues today. Andrew Parsons, a partner at Post Office lawyers’ Womble Bond Dickinson, faces a second tricky day of questioning.
Rishi Sunak is not campaigning today, he is in Italy for the G7 summit still. John Swinney is abroad as well. Scotland’s first minister will attend the opening match of Euro 2024, where his nation take on the hosts Germany at 8pm. Half hour before that kicks off on ITV One, BBC One will be showing a Panorama special with Nick Robinson interviewing Starmer. That starts at 7.30pm. So you can watch both.
It is Martin Belam with you on the blog today. Do drop me a line at martin.belam@theguardian.com if you spot typos, errors or omissions.
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Read the full story on www.theguardian.com
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/jun/14/general-election-2024-labour-manifesto-conservatives-rishi-sunak-keir-starmer-uk-politics